Investors are understandably concerned about the implications of the
outcome of the November 6 election. Suffice it to say, the stock market
rendered its own judgment on Tuesday, with a decline of 313 points.
Today, we are seeing more follow through on the negative sentiment. Interestingly, US Treasury bonds rallied, with the 30 year bond up
almost $2! The decline was broad based, with hardly any stocks up on my
main quote screen. Predictably, Energy and Finance, some of the most
regulated (and demonized) industries, got hurt the worst. I read a
story in the Wall Street Journal today that said that Exxon Mobil and
Johnson & Johnson now pay a lower interest rate on their bonds than
the US Government! This is unprecedented, at least in modern times.
Considering the fact that the US Government normally (and historically
always) has paid a lower interest rate than any other domestic bond (and
most foreign bonds), this should be a warning sign and a wake up call
to those in power who have an effect on the perceived quality of the US
Government and its ability to repay debt obligations.
Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate, has already said
that he is willing to negotiate if the Republicans in the House are
willing to raise taxes. But he says that he refuses to touch or reform
Social Security and other such government entitlement programs. John
Boehner, the Speaker of the House, has said that he is willing to raise
taxes if the Senate is willing to tackle entitlement programs! There
does not seem to be any common ground here, at least today.
Hang onto your wallets, we are about to be in for a bumpy ride!
Thursday, November 8, 2012
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